The CLARITY Act’s chances of receiving a weekend Senate vote faded Thursday after leadership took no procedural action to advance the crypto market structure bill.
Summary
- No CLARITY Act cloture filing appeared on the Senate’s Thursday schedule.
- The Senate instead prioritized a funding measure, nominations and the Protect College Sports Act.
- Cynthia Lummis continues to push for action before lawmakers begin their August recess.
- Polymarket traders cut the bill’s odds of becoming law in 2026 to 17%.
CLARITY Act misses another procedural opening
Senate Majority Leader John Thune did not file cloture on the motion to proceed to the CLARITY Act on Wednesday, leaving the bill without the procedural countdown needed for an initial vote.
The U.S. Senate Daily Press said the chamber would reconvene at 10:00 a.m. Thursday and resume consideration of a group of nominations under Senate Resolution 817. Roll-call votes were expected but had not been scheduled.
Thune filed cloture on a substitute amendment to H.R. 6500, the underlying continuing-resolution vehicle, the motion to proceed to S. 4668 and Todd Blanche’s nomination to be attorney general. S. 4668 is the Protect College Sports Act of 2026.
The CLARITY Act was absent from that list. Without a cloture filing, Senate leaders cannot begin the standard process of limiting debate and moving the bill toward floor consideration. The omission made a weekend procedural vote increasingly difficult, even if senators remain in Washington beyond Friday.
Bipartisan negotiations remain active
The delay came despite signs that Republicans, Democrats and the White House were continuing to negotiate unresolved provisions.
Sen. Thom Tillis told reporters that administration officials had begun examining parts of the proposed language.
“We’ve got people working with the White House right now… they’re going through some of the lines right now,” Tillis said.
Ethics restrictions involving senior federal officials have remained one of the largest barriers to an agreement. Lawmakers have also discussed provisions covering illicit finance, decentralized finance, stablecoin rewards and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s authority.
The Senate would need 60 votes to invoke cloture and advance the legislation. Republicans cannot reach that threshold without Democratic support, making a bipartisan agreement necessary before leadership puts the measure on the floor.
Even if senators agree on the disputed language, the bill must still compete with government funding legislation, nominations and other measures already placed in the procedural queue.
Lummis keeps pressure on Senate leaders
Sen. Cynthia Lummis has continued pressing for a vote before the August recess. The Wyoming Republican said earlier this week that lawmakers could remain in Washington through the weekend.
“I don’t think we’ll be leaving on Friday. I think we’ll go into the weekend,” Lummis said.
“There are other bills in addition to the CLARITY Act that we need to take votes on before we leave for the August recess.”
Lummis previously said Thune had reserved space for the legislation on the Senate agenda for several weeks. However, her comments described her expectation for the bill rather than confirming that leadership had scheduled a procedural vote.
Negotiators have worked on the measure for nearly 11 months. Lummis said she had recently focused on its CFTC provisions while lawmakers attempted to resolve differences between the two parties.
The senator has argued that Congress needs to clarify federal oversight of digital assets to prevent crypto companies from moving operations outside the United States.
Polymarket odds fall to 17%
Prediction-market traders have become increasingly doubtful that the legislation will clear Congress this year.
Polymarket placed the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 at approximately 17% on Thursday, down 48% over the period displayed in the supplied chart. The contract has attracted more than $5 million in cumulative volume.
The odds had traded above 70% at several points earlier in the year before declining through June and July. They fell more sharply as unresolved negotiations and the crowded Senate calendar narrowed the available legislative window.
The Polymarket contract resolves “Yes” only if H.R. 3633 passes both chambers and receives the president’s signature by Dec. 31.
A bipartisan agreement could revive the bill after the recess, but the Senate would still need to complete its procedural votes, consider amendments and approve the legislation. Any changes to the House-passed text could also require further action in the House before the measure reaches the president.
