Here’s why BTC may crash by double digits in the following months.
The primary cryptocurrency once again jumped above $80,000 earlier today, reinforcing the view that the resurgence could be the start of a full-blown bull market.
However, some industry participants warned that unless BTC clears crucial resistance zones, it remains at risk of sliding back all the way down to $50,000.
The Necessary Conditions
Bitcoin has been on an evident uptrend over the past several days, with its price climbing by 15% on a weekly scale. At one point, it surpassed $81,000, with the catalysts behind that rally detailed in our article here. As of press time, the asset trades at around $79,600 (per CoinGecko), while its market capitalization has soared past $1.6 trillion.
Despite the positive performance and prevailing optimism, the analyst known as Gerla on X issued a note of caution. He believes BTC’s price must make a clean break above $82,000 to change the bearish structure.
“Until then, I wouldn’t rule out a deeper move below the $58K-$60K zone before the real breakout,” the analyst added.
X user cyclop joined with a similar thesis. They claimed that if BTC fails to hold above $83,000, “we’re still in a bear trend.” Should that happen, the analyst expects a dump toward $50,000 by November.
Other analysts who recently made bearish predictions include AlejandroBTC and Nonzee. The former argued that BTC faces a major downturn ahead that could take its valuation as low as $40,000, while the latter opined that the asset’s surge was triggered by a liquidity squeeze and envisioned an eventual crash to $45,000.
The Opposite Theory
The analytics firm CryptoQuant also analyzed BTC’s recent performance. In fact, eight of its ten market indicators (including its bull score) have entered bullish territory, suggesting that the current conditions may represent the early phase of a major rally. At the same time, the company noted that BTC needs a daily close above its 365-day moving average (around $83,000) for confirmation.
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X user Gordon did not mention any obstacles, simply declaring that the bear market is over. He congratulated investors who bought BTC at $60,000, claiming that the rest are still early anyway.
Certain signals, including the amount of Bitcoin stored on exchanges, support the bullish outlook. Data show that, despite the price increase, investors have been abandoning centralized platforms in favor of self-custody methods over the last several days, thereby reducing immediate selling pressure.
