CryptoQuant signal has flipped Bitcoin into early bull territory for the first time since March 2023, analysts say.
Summary
- CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator entered bullish territory on May 12, using its Profit and Loss Index to confirm the regime shift.
- The last confirmed green signal in March 2023 preceded a sustained bull run taking Bitcoin from $20,000 to above $73,000 by April 2024.
- Analysts flag March 2022 as the key exception, when the indicator briefly turned green before Bitcoin extended a deeper downtrend into 2023.
CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator entered bullish territory on May 12 for the first time since March 2023, signaling what analysts describe as a potential transition away from bear-market behavior. The indicator is built on CryptoQuant’s Profit and Loss Index, which aggregates the MVRV ratio, NUPL, and a comparison of Long-Term Holder and Short-Term Holder SOPR ratios.
CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno wrote on X that the shift “often suggests that the worst phase of the correction has already passed and that market structure is beginning to recover.” Bitcoin was trading above $80,000 when the indicator flipped, having rebounded roughly 35% from February’s $60,000 lows.
Why analysts are not calling a confirmed bull market yet
The last confirmed green reading came in March 2023 and held continuously until August 2024, covering a period during which Bitcoin climbed from roughly $20,000 to an all-time high above $73,000. The March 2022 signal is the critical exception: the indicator briefly turned green that month before Bitcoin extended its downtrend well into 2023.
Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, described the indicator as a regime-shift tool rather than a predictive crystal ball. “Historically, it has been most useful for identifying when bitcoin stops behaving like a bear-market asset,” he said. Sustained demand, liquidity, and price acceptance at higher levels are still required before the signal can be treated as validated.
Moreno flagged several secondary metrics showing exhaustion in the current setup. Bitcoin must decisively break the $82,000 resistance level, which has rejected multiple rally attempts, before the signal can be considered confirmed by price action.
What supporting data shows and what Hayes sees
Supporting the regime-shift thesis, April ETF inflows into spot Bitcoin products reached $2.44 billion, the strongest single-month institutional accumulation since October 2025. Glassnode’s RHODL ratio currently sits at 4.5, the third-highest reading in Bitcoin’s history, with the only comparable prior readings occurring at the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms.
Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, argued separately that Bitcoin already found its cycle bottom at $60,000 earlier in 2026 and identified $90,000 as the threshold at which any rally would turn explosive toward the prior all-time high of $126,000. Bitget Wallet analyst Lacie Zhang said Bitcoin is “positioned for a potential breakout toward $85,000 to $90,000,” citing strong institutional support and continued ETF inflows.
